# Cattle supplies are 8% behind last year: what it changes for autumn *Published 2026-08-02 by FarmAI Ireland* Irish cattle throughput is running 8% behind 2025, with 893,878 head processed in the first 30 weeks — 77,688 head fewer than the same period last year. Cow throughput is down 11%. Tighter supply normally supports price, and Irish R3 steers have gained €0.12/kg over four weeks. But export demand is softening at the same time, which is what makes this autumn harder to call than the headline suggests. **Figures below are from Bord Bia's weekly report for the week ending 26 July 2026, read on 2 August.** Prices move weekly. Check the source before acting on any number here. ## What the numbers say Throughput in the week ending 26 July was 29,688 head. Year to date, 893,878 head have gone through DAFM approved plants — **77,688 head fewer than the same 30-week period in 2025, a fall of 8%**. Every category is down. The sharpest fall is cows, running 11% behind last year. Some of that is offset by heavier carcases. Average carcase weights have improved across the board, so the drop in beef volume is smaller than the drop in head count. Live exports follow the same line. 263,329 head year to date, 10% behind 2025's record levels, though still ahead of both 2023 and 2024. Calves dominate, as they do at this point in the calving cycle — just over 1,000 head last week, 22% of the trade, going mainly to the Netherlands, Spain and Italy. ## The half of the story that is not supply Tighter supply is only half of a price. The other half is whether anyone is buying. Bord Bia's own commentary is direct about this: demand for beef in key export markets has come under pressure in recent weeks. Three reasons are named. Inflation is squeezing consumers. Beef prices at retail are historically high, which is doing what high prices do. And there is more imported non-European beef on the shelves in our main markets, alongside cheaper competing proteins. So you have supply pulling one way and demand pulling the other. That is the honest position, and it is why "supplies are tight, hold on" is an incomplete piece of advice. ## Where the price sits right now R3 steers averaged €6.69/kg in the week ending 26 July. That was down €0.03/kg on the week, but up €0.12/kg across four weeks. Base quotes moved the other way. Most major processors reduced quotes that week — around €6.50/kg for steers, from €6.60/kg for heifers, €6.40/kg for R grade cows, €6.00/kg for well-fleshed O grade. That combination — reported average up over the month, quotes down this week — is worth sitting with rather than picking whichever half suits the decision you already want to make. For context, the UK R3 steer equivalent was €7.14/kg, a €0.45/kg premium over Ireland. The EU average R3 young bull was €6.32/kg, €0.37/kg behind. The cross-border gap is the one worth watching, and our explainer on [deadweight prices across the border](/read/deadweight-prices-cross-border-ai) covers how that differential actually works. ## What it changes for your autumn **Do not plan on a number.** The four-week trend is up, this week's quotes are down, and the demand side is genuinely weak. Anyone who tells you confidently where beef will be in November is guessing. **Weight is doing some of the work for you.** Heavier carcases are part of why volume has held better than head count. If you are finishing, the gap between hitting spec and drifting past it is worth more than usual — an overweight or overfat carcase gives back the price you were waiting for. **Cow numbers being down 11% is the number to watch.** That is a herd-level signal, not a weekly wobble, and it feeds into supply for years rather than weeks. **Ring rather than read.** Published averages include bonuses and exclude VAT. Base quotes do neither. If you want to know what your animals are worth, that is a phone call, not a webpage. Our piece on [how co-ops actually set milk price](/read/co-op-ai-milk-pricing) shows the same gap between a headline figure and what lands in your account. **Fodder first.** If the dry weather has left you short of winter feed, the cost of closing that gap will move your margin further than a few cent per kilo on sale day. Do that sum before you plan sales around a price forecast. ## Frequently asked questions **Are Irish cattle numbers actually falling?** Yes. Throughput for the first 30 weeks of 2026 was 893,878 head, down 77,688 head or 8% on the same period in 2025. Cow throughput is down 11%. Live exports are 10% behind last year's record, though still ahead of 2023 and 2024. **Will tighter supply push beef prices up this autumn?** It supports price, but it does not decide it on its own. Bord Bia reports demand in key export markets under pressure from consumer inflation, historically high retail beef prices and increased imported non-European beef. Supply and demand are pulling in opposite directions, so treat confident autumn forecasts with caution. **What is the current R3 steer price in Ireland?** R3 steers averaged €6.69/kg in the week ending 26 July 2026, down €0.03/kg on the week and up €0.12/kg over four weeks. That figure includes bonuses and excludes VAT. Prices change weekly, so check Bord Bia's current report rather than relying on this one. ## The bottom line Fewer cattle, heavier carcases, softer demand. Supply is on your side and the consumer is not. Do the fodder sum first, sell to spec rather than to a forecast, and make the phone call before you make the plan. --- ## Sources - [Bord Bia — Cattle Trade & Prices](https://www.bordbia.ie/farmers-growers/prices-markets/cattle-trade-prices/) — Weekly throughput, live export and price data for the Irish cattle trade, sourced from DAFM - [Teagasc](https://www.teagasc.ie) — Irish agriculture and food development authority - [CSO — AJM01 agricultural price statistics](https://data.cso.ie/table/AJM01) — Monthly CSO cattle price series for longer-run trend --- *Source: [FarmAI Ireland](https://farmai.ie/read/cattle-supplies-down-autumn-2026)*