# Teagasc beef budgets 2026/27 explained: the breakeven price, and how to check your own

*Published 2026-10-26 by FarmAI Ireland*

Teagasc's 2026/27 beef budgets do not give a margin. They give the factory price you need to break even. For a continental forward store steer bought at €4.50 a kg, that is €7.64 a kg carcass. In the week to 18 October, DAFM put the average R3 steer at €6.95. At that price, every winter finishing sheet in the set loses money. Here is how to check your own.

**Checked 26 October 2026.** Prices quoted are DAFM national averages for the week of 12 to 18 October 2026. They move weekly.

## What do the Teagasc beef budgets actually say?

[Teagasc published its Beef Budgets 2026/2027](https://teagasc.ie/publications/teagasc-beef-budgets-2026-2027/) on 29 September 2026. There are six sheets, one per system. Each sets a purchase weight and price, a feeding period, the silage and meal needed, variable and fixed costs, and a carcass weight.

The last line on each sheet is the one that matters. It is the breakeven selling price in euro per kg carcass. Teagasc says plainly that these are not predicted prices. They are the price you would need to get, given the assumptions above them.

So the budgets never say "you will make €X a head". They say "below this price, you lose". Here are the breakevens, with the purchase price each one assumes.

| System (sale date) | Buys at | Breakeven €/kg carcass |
|---|---|---|
| Forward store continental steer, 540 kg, 120 days (spring 2027) | €4.50/kg LW | €7.64 |
| Forward store dairy-cross steer, 500 kg, 90 days (spring 2027) | €3.84/kg LW | €7.46 |
| Forward store continental heifer, 500 kg, 100 days (spring 2027) | €4.41/kg LW | €7.70 |
| Forward store dairy-cross heifer, 460 kg, 70 days (spring 2027) | €3.80/kg LW | €7.55 |
| Under-16-month continental bull, 380 kg, 8 months (June 2027) | €5.10/kg LW | €7.20 |
| Store to beef, Friesian steer, grass finish, no meal (autumn 2027) | €3.37/kg LW | €6.81 |
| Store to beef, continental steer, grass finish (autumn 2027) | €4.52/kg LW | €7.60 |
| Continental weanling to beef, 24-month steer (2028) | €5.50/kg LW | €7.40 |
| Dairy-beef runner, AA/HE steer, 220 kg (2028) | €5.08/kg LW | €6.92 |

Each sheet also tells you how much the price must rise to add €100 a head. It ranges from 24c to 39c a kg. That is the number to hold onto when someone tells you the trade is "up a bit".

## How does this week's factory price compare?

[DAFM's weekly beef price report](https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-agriculture-food-and-the-marine/collections/beef-average-prices-including-vat-for-steers-cows-heifers-young-bulls-and-bulls/) for 12 to 18 October 2026 gives national averages by grade, including VAT. Steers averaged 694c a kg. An R3 steer made 695c, an O3 steer 680c, an R3 heifer 703c, and a U3 young bull 658c.

Put those against the winter finishing sheets and the gap is wide.

| System | Breakeven | Price now | Gap per kg | Gap per head |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continental steer, 390 kg carcass | €7.64 | €6.95 (R3) | −€0.69 | −€269 |
| Dairy-cross steer, 310 kg carcass | €7.46 | €6.80 (O3) | −€0.66 | −€205 |
| Continental heifer, 341 kg carcass | €7.70 | €7.03 (R3) | −€0.67 | −€228 |
| Under-16-month bull, 415 kg carcass | €7.20 | €6.58 (U3) | −€0.62 | −€257 |

Two things to say about that table. First, these cattle sell in spring 2027, not this week. The budgets are a bet that the spring price beats the autumn price, and Teagasc says it cannot predict that. Second, the grass-finished Friesian sheet at €6.81 is roughly at today's O3 price. The grass systems carry far less meal, which is why they sit lower.

The CSO's [August 2026 price index](https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-api/agriculturalpriceindicesaugust2026/) shows the direction. Cattle prices were 3.0% down on July and 14.9% down on August 2025. The live board on [our data page](/data) tracks the same CSO series monthly, about two months behind.

One caveat on VAT. DAFM quotes factory prices including VAT and mart prices excluding it. The Teagasc sheets do not say either way. Compare on the basis you actually get paid, which is the price on your own docket.

## What margin does Teagasc expect for 2026?

This is where the queue of Teagasc documents needs sorting by date.

In December 2025, at its Outlook 2026 conference, [Teagasc forecast](https://teagasc.ie/news--events/daily/beef-farming-in-2026-a-forecast/) net margins for 2026. It put single suckling farms at €767 a hectare and cattle finishing farms at €616. That forecast assumed finished cattle prices would rise 5% and store prices 3%.

By 20 July 2026 the picture had changed. Teagasc's [mid-year outlook](https://teagasc.ie/news--events/news/farm-incomes-set-to-fall-in-2026-as-milk-and-cattle-prices-ease-alongside-further-cost-pressures/) expects finished cattle prices 8% below 2025 and weanlings 10% below. It forecasts cattle rearing income at about €19,000, down 21%, and cattle other (mainly finishers) at about €21,000, down 36%. Those are whole-farm incomes including payments, not margins per hectare, and Teagasc has not published a revised per-hectare figure.

So the honest answer is: the only per-hectare margin forecast is December's, and its price assumption has since gone the other way. Treat €767 and €616 as the ceiling, not the expectation.

The best hard benchmark is last year's actual result. The [National Farm Survey 2025](https://teagasc.ie/wp-content/uploads/uploads/media/website/publications/2026/National-Farm-Survey-2025-Factsheet-Single-Suckling.pdf) put the average single suckling gross margin at €1,119 a hectare. Net margin was €578 a hectare, or €763 a cow. Calf to weanling systems made €1,071 a hectare gross, calf to store €996, and calf to finish €1,388. [Cattle finishing enterprises](https://teagasc.ie/wp-content/uploads/uploads/media/website/publications/2026/National-Farm-Survey-2025-Factsheet-Cattle-Finishing.pdf) averaged €995 gross and €374 net a hectare. Those were record prices. Your 2026 figure will sit below them.

## Which three inputs move the budget most?

Take the continental forward store steer. Bought at 540 kg, fed 120 days on 3 tonnes of silage and 7 kg of meal a day, sold at a 390 kg carcass. Total cost including the animal is €2,979.

**Beef price.** Every 10c a kg is €39 a head on that carcass. The €0.69 gap above is €269. Nothing else on the sheet moves the answer this fast.

**Meal price.** At 7 kg a day for 120 days, that steer eats 840 kg. Every €20 a tonne on the ration is €16.80 a head. The CSO feeding stuffs index was flat in August and 1.6% up on the year, but your merchant's quote is the only number that counts. Ring for it; do not use one you read in July.

**Silage DMD.** This is the one the sheet hides. Teagasc's 7 kg a day lines up with the 66 DMD row of its [DairyBeef 500 feeding table](https://teagasc.ie/animals/beef/dairy-calf-to-beef/dairybeef-500/dairybeef-500-factsheets/silage-quality-and-concentrate-supplementation/). Teagasc's 2023 survey put 66 DMD as about the national average. On 72 DMD silage the same gain takes 5 kg a day. Over 120 days that is 240 kg of meal a head, about a quarter of the bill. Below 66 DMD the Teagasc table stops, and the sheet no longer describes your cattle.

After this summer's drought, do not assume your pit is average. You cannot tell by looking. Get the test done before you order the winter's ration. [Our guide to reading the result](/read/silage-test-results-explained-dmd-meal-bill) shows what each DMD point costs in meal. If the pit is short as well as poor, the [winter fodder budget](/read/winter-fodder-budget-2026) comes first.

## How do you rebuild the budget with your own numbers?

You need six figures. Most are on paper you already have.

1. **Purchase price per head.** From the mart docket. Not the per-kg headline, the full price with commission.
2. **Days on feed.** From the date you housed to the date you plan to sell.
3. **Meal per head per day, and the price per tonne.** Match the rate to your silage test, not to habit.
4. **Silage per head.** Teagasc uses 3 tonnes for 120 days on this steer. Cost it at what it cost you to make, or what a bale is worth to a neighbour.
5. **Other variable and fixed costs.** Teagasc allows €63 a head fixed costs on a 120-day finisher. Vet, dosing, straw, diesel, interest and your own time go on top.
6. **Carcass weight and the price you expect.** Use your own kill-out history. Do not assume 390 kg because the sheet does.

Then the arithmetic is one line. Add the purchase price to all costs. Divide by carcass weight. That is your breakeven per kg. Compare it with today's price for your grade, and decide how much spring price you are betting on.

For the suckler side, the comparison is different. Work out your gross margin per hectare and per cow, then set it against the National Farm Survey averages above. Teagasc's Road Map targets are a gross margin above €615 a hectare and a net margin above €159. In 2025, 79% of surveyed suckler enterprises cleared the gross margin target and 78% the net margin target. The top third averaged €1,805 a hectare gross; the bottom third €522.

## Can an AI assistant do the arithmetic honestly?

Yes, if you give it every number and forbid it from guessing. Paste this and replace the brackets:

> I am an Irish beef farmer rebuilding a Teagasc-style winter finishing budget. Use only the figures I give you. Do not look up, estimate or assume any price, weight or cost. If a figure is missing, stop and ask for it. Purchase price per head: [€]. Days on feed: [ ]. Meal: [kg] a day at [€] a tonne. Silage: [tonnes] a head at [€] a tonne. Other variable costs per head: [€]. Fixed costs per head: [€]. Expected carcass weight: [kg]. Show every step of the arithmetic. Give me total cost per head and the breakeven price per kg carcass. Then show the breakeven at meal rates of 5 kg and 7 kg a day, and at carcass weights 20 kg either side of mine. Label every result as an estimate based on my inputs.

What it cannot know, and will fib about if you let it: this week's factory price, your silage DMD, and your factory's grid and bonuses. Nor the spring price, how your cattle will actually thrive, or whether your figures include VAT. Give it those or leave them out. Never ask it for "the current beef price in Ireland". Ask the factory.

Treat the output the way you would treat a neighbour's sum on the back of a feed docket. Useful for direction, worth checking with your Teagasc advisor before you buy stock. For the wider picture on where AI helps a drystock farm, see [what AI can and cannot do for a 50-cow suckler farm](/read/what-ai-can-and-cant-do-for-a-50-cow-suckler-farm).

## Where are the Teagasc assumptions optimistic or dated?

**The purchase prices are a snapshot from late September.** Teagasc sets them at the market value when it writes the sheets. By mid-October DAFM's mart average for yearling males was €3.68 a kg excluding VAT, across all breeds. That is not a like-for-like check on a €4.50 continental store, but it tells you the trade is not standing still. Use your own docket.

**The breakeven is the breakeven at Teagasc's performance.** A 1.3 kg daily gain over 120 days on 66 DMD silage and 7 kg of meal is a target, not a given. Miss it by 0.2 kg a day and the carcass is about 14 kg lighter, which is roughly €97 at €6.95.

**Fixed costs are thin.** €63 a head for a 120-day finisher covers machinery, buildings and a share of overheads. It does not cover your labour or the interest on €2,430 of cattle.

**One sheet has a typo.** The autumn-to-autumn Friesian steer is bought at €3.37 a kg on page one but €3.27 on page two. That gives two breakevens, €6.81 and €6.68. The €3.37 figure matches the €1,550 purchase price, so we have used it.

**The December margin forecast is stale.** Teagasc's own July update reversed the price assumption behind it. Nobody has published a revised per-hectare margin since.

None of that is a criticism of the sheets. Teagasc tells you on every page to do your own budget with your advisor. This article is the reason why.

## Frequently asked questions

**Does Teagasc say I will lose money finishing cattle this winter?**
No. It gives the price you need to break even and says it cannot predict prices. At the week-42 DAFM averages, every winter finishing sheet is below breakeven by roughly €200 to €270 a head. Whether that gap closes by spring is your call, not Teagasc's.

**What margin should a suckler farm in Ireland aim for in 2026?**
The only Teagasc per-hectare forecast is €767 net for 2026, made in December before prices fell. Last year's survey average was €578 a hectare, or €763 a cow. Teagasc's Road Map target is a gross margin above €615 a hectare. Beating last year is unlikely at 2026 prices; beating the Road Map target is a fair aim.

**Which number should I check first: beef price, meal price or silage quality?**
Silage quality, because it is the only one you can fix before the bill arrives. A silage test is cheap and decides whether you are feeding 5 kg or 7 kg a day. Beef price moves the answer most, but you cannot change it. Meal price you can only shop around for.

**Are the Teagasc breakeven prices including VAT?**
The sheets do not say. DAFM quotes factory prices including VAT and mart prices excluding it. Compare on the basis you are paid on your own docket, and ask your advisor if you are unsure which that is.

## The bottom line

The 2026/27 budgets are not a forecast and not a margin. They are a breakeven price, and at mid-October factory prices every winter finishing sheet is under water. Rebuild the sheet with your own purchase price, your own silage test and your own merchant's quote. Then decide how much spring you are betting on.

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## Sources

- [Teagasc, Beef Budgets 2026/2027](https://teagasc.ie/publications/teagasc-beef-budgets-2026-2027/) — Published 29 September 2026. Six system sheets with purchase price, feed, costs and the breakeven selling price in euro per kg carcass. Source of every breakeven figure quoted
- [Teagasc, Forward Store to Beef Steer (Spring 2025 born) budget sheet](https://teagasc.ie/wp-content/uploads/uploads/media/website/publications/2026/Forward-Store-to-Beef-Steer-Spring-2025-born.pdf) — The system used in the worked example: 540 kg continental store at €4.50 a kg, 120 days, 7 kg meal, 3 tonnes silage, 390 kg carcass, breakeven €7.64
- [DAFM, Beef Average Prices Week 42, 12 to 18 October 2026](https://assets.gov.ie/static/documents/336c445a/Prices_12102026.pdf) — National weighted average factory prices by grade, cent per kg including VAT. Steers averaged 694c, R3 steers 695c, R3 heifers 703c, U3 young bulls 658c
- [DAFM, Live Prices Report Week 42, 2026](https://assets.gov.ie/static/documents/73e09ea6/Copy_of_Live_Prices_Report_Week_42_2026.xlsx) — Mart averages excluding VAT: young stores (180 to 364 days, all breeds) €4.50 a kg, yearling males €3.68, yearling females €3.58
- [Teagasc, Farm incomes set to fall in 2026 (mid-year outlook, 20 July 2026)](https://teagasc.ie/news--events/news/farm-incomes-set-to-fall-in-2026-as-milk-and-cattle-prices-ease-alongside-further-cost-pressures/) — Finished cattle prices forecast 8% lower than 2025, weanlings 10% lower; cattle rearing income forecast €19,000 and cattle other €21,000 for 2026
- [Teagasc, Beef farming in 2026: a forecast (Outlook 2026 conference)](https://teagasc.ie/news--events/daily/beef-farming-in-2026-a-forecast/) — The December 2025 forecast of a €767 a hectare net margin on single suckling and €616 on cattle finishing farms, built on a 5% rise in finished cattle prices
- [Teagasc, National Farm Survey 2025 Single Suckling Enterprise Factsheet](https://teagasc.ie/wp-content/uploads/uploads/media/website/publications/2026/National-Farm-Survey-2025-Factsheet-Single-Suckling.pdf) — 2025 gross margin €1,119 a hectare, net margin €578 a hectare and €763 a cow, concentrates €180 a hectare, and the Road Map targets
- [Teagasc, National Farm Survey 2025 Cattle Finishing Enterprise Factsheet](https://teagasc.ie/wp-content/uploads/uploads/media/website/publications/2026/National-Farm-Survey-2025-Factsheet-Cattle-Finishing.pdf) — 2025 gross margin €995 a hectare, net margin €374 a hectare, concentrates €368 a hectare and 726 kg of meal per livestock unit
- [CSO, Agricultural Price Indices August 2026](https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-api/agriculturalpriceindicesaugust2026/) — Cattle output prices 3.0% lower than July and 14.9% lower than August 2025; feeding stuffs input index 124.9, unchanged on the month and 1.6% up on the year
- [Teagasc DairyBeef 500, Silage Quality and Concentrate Supplementation](https://teagasc.ie/animals/beef/dairy-calf-to-beef/dairybeef-500/dairybeef-500-factsheets/silage-quality-and-concentrate-supplementation/) — Table 3: a finishing steer gaining 1 kg a day needs 7 kg of meal on 66 DMD silage and 5 kg on 72 DMD

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*Source: [FarmAI Ireland](https://farmai.ie/read/teagasc-beef-budgets-2026-27-explained)*