Cattle supplies are 7% behind last year: what it changes for autumn

Irish cattle throughput is running 7% behind 2025. DAFM supply figures to the week ending 2 August show 924,068 head processed so far this year, 72,915 fewer than the same period in 2025. Cow throughput is down 10%. Tighter supply normally supports price, but reported steer prices eased in early August. Export demand is softening at the same time, which is what makes this autumn harder to call than the headline suggests.

Updated 10 August 2026. Supply figures are DAFM weekly kill data for week 31, ending 2 August, as published in the IFA market update of 7 August. Price commentary from Bord Bia is stamped week ending 26 July, its most recent report we could verify. Prices move weekly. Check the sources before acting on any number here.

What the numbers say

Throughput in week 31, ending 2 August, was 30,585 head. That brings the year to 924,068 head through DAFM approved plants, 72,915 head fewer than the same 31-week period in 2025, a fall of 7%.

Every category is down. The sharpest fall is cows: 202,870 head year to date, 22,807 behind last year, a drop of 10%.

Some of that is offset by heavier carcases. Bord Bia's late-July report noted improved average carcase weights across the board, so the drop in beef volume is smaller than the drop in head count.

Live exports follow the same line. 263,329 head to the week ending 26 July, 10% behind 2025's record levels, though still ahead of both 2023 and 2024. Calves dominate, as they do at this point in the calving cycle — just over 1,000 head that week, 22% of the trade, going mainly to the Netherlands, Spain and Italy.

The half of the story that is not supply

Tighter supply is only half of a price. The other half is whether anyone is buying.

Bord Bia's own commentary is direct about this: demand for beef in key export markets has come under pressure in recent weeks. Three reasons are named. Inflation is squeezing consumers. Beef prices at retail are historically high, which is doing what high prices do. And there is more imported non-European beef on the shelves in our main markets, alongside cheaper competing proteins.

So you have supply pulling one way and demand pulling the other. That is the honest position, and it is why "supplies are tight, hold on" is an incomplete piece of advice.

Where the price sits right now

R3 steers averaged €6.69/kg in the week ending 26 July on Bord Bia's series, which includes bonuses and excludes VAT. That was down €0.03/kg on the week, but up €0.12/kg across four weeks.

The following week the direction held downward. DAFM's VAT-inclusive price series recorded R3 steers at €6.93/kg for the week ending 2 August, down €0.06/kg on the week. The two series measure on different bases, so compare each one only with itself.

Quotes eased too. On 6 August, base steer quotes stood at €6.40 to €6.60/kg and heifers at €6.50 to €6.70/kg. Cow quotes ranged from €5.80 to €6.40/kg depending on grade.

That combination, a four-week rise now giving way to easing prices and quotes, is worth sitting with rather than picking whichever half suits the decision you already want to make.

For context, the UK R3 steer equivalent was €7.14/kg in the week ending 26 July, a €0.45/kg premium over Ireland. The EU average R3 young bull was €6.32/kg that week, €0.37/kg behind. The cross-border gap is the one worth watching, and our explainer on deadweight prices across the border covers how that differential actually works.

What it changes for your autumn

Do not plan on a number. The four-week trend is up, this week's quotes are down, and the demand side is genuinely weak. Anyone who tells you confidently where beef will be in November is guessing.

Weight is doing some of the work for you. Heavier carcases are part of why volume has held better than head count. If you are finishing, the gap between hitting spec and drifting past it is worth more than usual — an overweight or overfat carcase gives back the price you were waiting for.

Cow numbers being down 10% is the number to watch. That is a herd-level signal, not a weekly wobble, and it feeds into supply for years rather than weeks.

Ring rather than read. Published averages include bonuses and exclude VAT. Base quotes do neither. If you want to know what your animals are worth, that is a phone call, not a webpage. Our piece on how co-ops actually set milk price shows the same gap between a headline figure and what lands in your account.

Fodder first. If the dry weather has left you short of winter feed, the cost of closing that gap will move your margin further than a few cent per kilo on sale day. Do that sum before you plan sales around a price forecast.

Frequently asked questions

Are Irish cattle numbers actually falling?

Yes. DAFM supply figures for the first 31 weeks of 2026 show 924,068 head processed, down 72,915 head or 7% on the same period in 2025. Cow throughput is down 10%. Live exports to late July were 10% behind last year's record, though still ahead of 2023 and 2024.

Will tighter supply push beef prices up this autumn?

It supports price, but it does not decide it on its own. Bord Bia reports demand in key export markets under pressure from consumer inflation, historically high retail beef prices and increased imported non-European beef. Supply and demand are pulling in opposite directions, so treat confident autumn forecasts with caution.

What is the current R3 steer price in Ireland?

R3 steers averaged €6.69/kg in the week ending 26 July 2026 on Bord Bia's series, which includes bonuses and excludes VAT. DAFM's VAT-inclusive series recorded €6.93/kg for the week ending 2 August, down €0.06/kg on the week. Prices change weekly, so check the current Bord Bia and DAFM reports rather than relying on this one.

The bottom line

Fewer cattle, heavier carcases, softer demand. Supply is on your side and the consumer is not.

Do the fodder sum first, sell to spec rather than to a forecast, and make the phone call before you make the plan.