Winter fodder budget 2026: check your silage shortfall

A winter fodder budget tells you whether the silage in your yard covers the animals you expect to house. Count each stock group, choose the feeding months, measure the pit and add your bales. Use Teagasc's figures as planning estimates, then check the assumptions with your advisor. The worked example below shows the arithmetic, including the direction of a shortfall.

Updated 4 October 2026. Use the feed left today, after any summer or autumn feeding. A July stock count is no longer your winter supply. Keep the monthly roundup handy for more practical farm checks.

How do you calculate winter silage demand?

The Teagasc Grass Silage Stock Checker gives monthly pit-silage requirements per animal: dairy cow 1.6 tonnes, suckler cow 1.4, cattle under one year 0.7, cattle one to two years 1.3, cattle over two years 1.3, and ewe 0.15.

For each group, multiply head count by the monthly figure and feeding months. Add the groups. Enter the reserve you choose separately; the checker suggests a 10–20% buffer for most farms.

These are budgeting figures. Stock type, diet and housing period affect the amount needed. Do not use an AI answer as a feeding prescription.

How do you measure the silage available?

Teagasc's feed-budgeting guidance uses pit length × width × average settled height, in metres, divided by 1.35 to estimate tonnes. Its bale conversion is bale count × 0.9 tonne-equivalents.

These conversions are estimates, not a weighbridge result. Dry matter changes both weight and feeding value. Do not assume every bale has identical contents or change between conversion methods halfway through a budget.

Measure safely from an accessible position; do not climb an unstable face. Exclude spoiled feed you cannot use. Record the date beside the stock count.

What does a worked fodder budget look like?

This is an illustrative suckler-farm calculation, not a forecast for an actual farm. Assumptions: 60 suckler cows, 25 cattle under one year, 20 cattle aged one to two years, six feeding months and a 15% buffer. The six months and buffer are chosen assumptions; agree an appropriate reserve with your advisor rather than automatically adding both.

Monthly demand:

• Cows: 60 × 1.4 = 84 tonnes.
• Under-one-year cattle: 25 × 0.7 = 17.5 tonnes.
• One-to-two-year cattle: 20 × 1.3 = 26 tonnes.
• Total: 127.5 tonnes per month.

Six months gives 765 tonnes. With the 15% buffer, demand is 879.75 tonnes.

Suppose the remaining pit is 20m × 9m × 2.1m. Its volume is 378 cubic metres; divided by 1.35, that estimates 280 tonnes. Sixty bales add 54 tonne-equivalents. Total estimated supply is 334 tonnes.

Demand minus supply: 879.75 − 334 = 545.75 tonnes short. A positive result is a deficit. A negative result is a surplus. Keep that subtraction order written beside your result.

A gap this large is a reason to check the measurements, stock groups and feeding months before pricing a response. Reducing the example's feeding period to five months, keeping the same buffer, gives 733.125 tonnes required and a 399.125-tonne deficit. It remains short; changing the assumption does not make the problem disappear.

How can AI check the sums without inventing a diet?

Supply the figures and method yourself:

Using only these inputs, calculate monthly demand by stock group, total demand, reserve and supply. Use pit volume divided by 1.35 and bales multiplied by 0.9. Show demand minus supply; label positive as deficit and negative as surplus. Do not recommend a ration or invent stock numbers. List assumptions I should confirm with my advisor.

Compare every line with a calculator. Our first AI prompts guide explains the supplied-source habit.

What should you do if you are short?

Prepare the checked budget and talk to your advisor. Compare available forage, delivered costs, quality and changes to winter stock numbers. Ask for a suitable diet before using concentrates to replace forage; adequate roughage and feeding arrangements matter.

Teagasc's September 2026 guidance asks farmers to audit winter demand and supply and consider silage quality. It also highlights transport and feed-out costs when sourcing forage. Our silage-test explainer helps you prepare that conversation.

Record the agreed plan and repeat the budget when stock numbers or feed use change. Check current co-op support directly; an expired summer rebate is not an October offer.

Frequently asked questions

Is a silage budget the same as a ration?

No. The budget estimates feed stocks against demand. Your advisor or nutritionist needs animal requirements and feed analysis to plan diets.

Does a negative result mean I am short?

If your calculation is demand minus supply, a negative result means a surplus. Keep that order written down so an AI assistant cannot silently reverse it.

Can I use this winter fodder budget on a small farm?

Yes. The method scales with stock numbers. Use your actual groups, feeding period and remaining stocks, then check the assumptions.

The bottom line

Write down demand, supply and reserve separately. Check the arithmetic, then take the size of any gap to your advisor. That gives you a concrete decision to make before more feed leaves the yard.